National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2023.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2023 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2023 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, diabetes medications, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2023 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2022, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 9.4% compared to 2021, for a total of $633.5 billion. Utilization (a 5.9% increase), price (a 1.7% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top-selling drug in 2022, followed by semaglutide and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.2 billion (a 5.9% decrease) and $116.9 billion (a 10.4% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with a small impact from price changes. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led to a decrease in expenditures, with price changes and new drugs contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending have been or are expected to be approved in 2023. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2023, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 6.0% to 8.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 8.0% to 10.0% and 1.0% to 3.0%, respectively, compared to 2022. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Pharmacy Forecast 2023: Balancing the urgency of now versus strategy for tomorrow.

In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time.

covidscreen: a web app and R Package for assessing asymptomatic COVID-19 testing strategies.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused over 305 million infections and nearly 5.5 million deaths globally. With complete eradication unlikely, organizations will need to evaluate their risk and the benefits of mitigation strategies, including the effects of regular asymptomatic testing. We developed a web application and R package that provides estimates and visualizations to aid the assessment of organizational infection risk and testing benefits to facilitate decision-making, which combines internal and community information with malleable assumptions. RESULTS: Our web application, covidscreen, presents estimated values of risk metrics in an intuitive graphical format. It shows the current expected number of active, primarily community-acquired infections among employees in an organization. It calculates and explains the absolute and relative risk reduction of an intervention, relative to the baseline scenario, and shows the value of testing vaccinated and unvaccinated employees. In addition, the web interface allows users to profile risk over a chosen range of input values. The performance and output are illustrated using simulations and a real-world example from the employee testing program of a pediatric oncology specialty hospital. CONCLUSIONS: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, covidscreen can assist organizations in making informed decisions about whether to incorporate covid test based screening as part of their on-campus risk-mitigation strategy. The web application, R package, and source code are freely available online (see "Availability of data and materials").

An adaptive, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 workforce screening program providing real-time, actionable monitoring of the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 remains a challenge worldwide, and testing of asymptomatic individuals remains critical to pandemic control measures. Starting March 2020, a total of 7497 hospital employees were tested at least weekly for SARS CoV-2; the cumulative incidence of asymptomatic infections was 5.64%. Consistently over a 14-month period half of COVID-19 infections (414 of 820, total) were detected through the asymptomatic screening program, a third of whom never developed any symptoms during follow-up. Prompt detection and isolation of these cases substantially reduced the risk of potential workplace and outside of workplace transmission. COVID-19 vaccinations of the workforce were initiated in December 2020. Twenty-one individuals tested positive after being fully vaccinated (3.9 per 1000 vaccinated). Most (61.9%) remained asymptomatic and in majority (75%) the virus could not be sequenced due to low template RNA levels in swab samples. Further routine testing of vaccinated asymptomatic employees was stopped and will be redeployed if needed; routine testing for those not vaccinated continues. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing, as a part of enhanced screening, monitors local dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and can provide valuable data to assess the ongoing impact of COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 variants, inform risk mitigation, and guide adaptive, operational planning including titration of screening strategies over time, based on infection risk modifiers such as vaccination.

A nucleic acid amplification test-based strategy does not help inform return to work for healthcare workers with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to assess the utility of a nucleic acid amplification test-based approach to shorten isolation of healthcare workers (HCWs) with COVID-19 in the setting of the highly transmissible omicron variant. METHODS: Between December 24, 2021, and January 5, 2022, HCWs who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were retested with PCR at least 5 days since onset of symptoms. RESULTS: Forty-six sequential fully COVID-19 vaccinated HCWs who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 underwent follow-up testing. All the samples were confirmed as omicron variants and only four (8.7%) were negative in the follow-up test performed at a median of 6 (range 5-12) since onset of symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a test-based strategy is logistically challenging, increases costs, and did not lead to shorter isolation in our institution.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2022.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2022 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2022 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2022 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2021, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 7.7% compared to 2020, for a total of $576.9 billion. Utilization (a 4.8% increase), price (a 1.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.1% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top drug in terms of overall expenditures in 2021, followed by apixaban and dulaglutide. Drug expenditures were $39.6 billion (a 8.4% increase) and $105.0 billion (a 7.7% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and in clinics, respectively. In clinics and hospitals, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with decreasing prices for both sectors acting as an expense restraint. Several new drugs that are likely to influence spending are expected to be approved in 2022. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2022, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7.0% to 9.0% and 3.0% to 5.0%, respectively, compared to 2021. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2021.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2021 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2021 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2021 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2020, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States grew 4.9% compared to 2019, for a total of $535.3 billion. Utilization (a 2.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase, with price changes having minimal influence (a 0.3% increase). Adalimumab was the top drug in 2020, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $35.3 billion (a 4.6% decrease) and $98.4 billion (an 8.1% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals the decrease in expenditures was driven by reduced utilization. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2021. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2021, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4% to 6%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7% to 9% and 3% to 5%, respectively, compared to 2020. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.